Okay, I’ve come up with a prediction for 2007. Ready, here it goes . . .
The Apple iPhone will be a complete and utter failure.
There I said it. I’m probably the only one alive that has the balls, or stupidity, to make this prediction. Here’s what I base it on:
Touch screen. People like buttons; touch screens take more time to use and are less reliable. They drain power from a device fast. Since the iPhone does not have the ability to swap out a dead battery for a fresh one, this will be a big problem. Also, touch screens offer zero tactile feedback, making them impossible to use without looking at them. I can work my cellphone blindfolded with one hand. Actually having to look at the phone presents a huge problem for use in the car, even if it may be illegal. Early hands-on reports from the New York Times indicate it is hard to type on the iPhone. Not good. By the way, remember the Apple Newton? No? Google it.
Speed dial / voice speed dial. It better have both of these features, especially since it uses a touch screen. Although the software is not yet fully complete, all info indicates the iPhone has neither feature.
Dedicated battery. I cannot believe anyone would make a cellphone where you cannot replace a dead battery with a fresh one. All rechargeable batteries, even the best ones, lose their ability to hold a charge over time. In fact most cellphone makers advise replacing your battery every six months to a year, depending on usage. What was Apple thinking?
3G. The Apple iPhone doesn’t run off a 3G network, a huge oversight!
Synch. Sure it’s great that it synchs with a computer, but it synchs with an Apple computer, which most people don’t have. When I say most people, I mean 90 to 95% of them. Also, the type of people that generally require the convergence of phone and computer are business people, who almost all use PCs, as most businesses use PCs. If a cellphone cannot synch with a PC, don’t expect to sell too many.
Too capable? Just what is the iPhone: is it a pocket Mac that happens to make phone calls, or a phone that happens to be a pocket Mac? The point is, it better perform like a rock-solid cellphone first, and do everything else second. Remember Steve Jobs (who wears the same outfit all the time, black mock turtleneck and jeans, what’s up with that?) calls it three products in one.
It’s ugly. It has a black face in a marketplace that favors silver-toned products. Black cellphones are so 1990’s. Let’s face it, the iPhone has as much sex appeal as a rectangular hockey puck.
Apple makes it. Apple is a company not widely know or accepted as making solid, trouble-free hardware. Also, Apple is not know for fast product line updates and improvements, which is essential for survival in the cellphone handset market. The iPod may be the exception, but Apple has had a dismal track record of build quality in all its computer products. I know plenty of people who’s Macs have died on them while out of warrantee, far many more than PC owners. And I mean died like a blown CPU, not just seized-up hard drives. Or DOA right out of the box! People are already talking about how the smart move will be to wait for the second or third generation iPhone. That’s not good either. Will the iPhone be made of the same easily scratched plastic as the iPod? It better not. I was always surprised that Apple never improved the scratch resistance of the iPod plastic. My new 80GB scratches just as much as the first iPods. That Apple never saw the huge aftermarket of iPod cases as an indication of a design flaw in the iPod is beyond comprehension. This iPhone better be able to take the abuse and use that most people subject their cellphones to. A delicate cellphone that is subject to failure is not the kind anyone wants to own. You know the auto-sensing horizontal or vertical display motion detector will be the first thing to fail.
It’s expensive. $500 and up. As great a company as Apple is, it has never been able to produce mass quantities of devices at low prices. And while the iPod is produced in mass quantities, it’s a rip-off when you apply a price-per-gig metric.
It’s too late. You can easily argue that Apple should have released a phone three to five years ago. So now it’s been introduced and talked all about, but you won’t be able to actually purchase an iPhone for about another half year! That does not bode well.
There’s stiff competition. Don’t expect any other cellphone maker to sit around and do nothing and not release a comparable or superior product. And maybe even before the iPhone actually hits stores.
So there you go, a prediction that runs contrary to all others it would seem. But that’s what being Rev. Irreverent is all about! You heard it here first. Now the iPhone will no doubt have some success, but I doubt it is going to have the kind of success that the iPod has enjoyed, the kind of success that everyone is expecting from the iPhone. So on that level, I feel it will be a huge failure for Apple. As always, watch and learn.
PS: Ain’t it ironic that Bill Gates is out saving the world while Steve Jobs is introducing a new cellphone? I mean Jobs was supposed to be the computer hippie, and Gates the computer establishment. Even the Apple TV ads support this dynamic. Now Gates is out spending his billions of dollars (and Warren Buffet’s too!) on trying to improve the lives of the impoverished, starving, dying, and disease ridden people living in third world countries. Meanwhile Jobs wears his black mock turtleneck and jeans, holds up a cellphone, and talks about revolution.
